Summary: Bold assertions have been made in policy reports and popular articles on the high and increasing enrollment in Pakistani religious schools, commonly known as madrassas. Given the importance placed on the subject by policymakers in Pakistan and those internationally, it is troubling that none of the reports and articles reviewed based their analysis on publicly available data or established statistical methodologies. The authors of this paper use published data sources and a census of schooling choice to show that existing estimates are inflated by an order of magnitude. Madrassas account for less than 1 percent of all enrollment in the country and there is no evidence of a dramatic increase in recent years. The educational landscape in Pakistan has changed substantially in the past decade, but this is due to an explosion of private schools, an important fact that has been left out of the debate on Pakistani education. Moreover, when the authors look at school choice, they find that no one explanation fits the data. While most existing theories of madrassa enrollment are based on household attributes (for instance, a preference for religious schooling or the household’s access to other schooling options), the data show that among households with at least one child enrolled in a madrassa, 75 percent send their second (and/or third) child to a public or private school or both. Widely promoted theories simply do not explain this substantial variation within households.

Religious School Enrollment in Pakistan: A Look at the Data

Citation: Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das, Asim I. Khwaja, and Tristan Zajonc. 2006. “Religious School Enrollment in Pakistan: A Look at the Data.” Comparative Education Review, 50 (3): 446-477.

Tahir Andrabi

Jishnu Das

Asim Khwaja

Tristan Zajonc


In recent years, policy makers have expressed growing concern about Pakistan’s religious schools, which are commonly known as madrassas. These concerns have been fueled considerably by reports and articles in the popular press contending that madrassa enrollment is high and increasing. The “rise” is generally attributed to either an increasing preference for religious schooling among families or a lack of other viable schooling options for the household. Yet while these theories have widespread currency, none of the reports and articles that we have reviewed have based their analysis on publicly available data sources or established statistical methodologies.

In this paper, we use established data sources, as well as data we collect ourselves for a broader study on education enrollment in Pakistan, to examine the size and importance of the religious education sector in Pakistan. Methodologically, this study analyzes madrassa enrollment in a school-choice framework that is well known to empirical economists dealing with issues of poverty and school quality in developing countries. This approach allows us to evaluate various popularly proposed theories of how madrasas fit into the overall educational decision of households. Our findings on madrassa enrollment numbers differ by an order of magnitude from those reported by and in the media:

Study Design and Findings

The madrassa sector accounts for less than one percent of total school enrollment in Pakistan

We define madrassas as schools which teach a religious curriculum instead of one prescribed by the Pakistani Ministry of Education. Our definition of enrollment focuses on the principal school that a student currently attends. Leveraging data from a variety of sources, we estimate that less than one percent of Pakistani students are principally enrolled in a madrassa. This estimate contrasts sharply with those reported by a variety of media sources, and various government and non-government agencies; including data cited in the 9/11 Commission report.


Madrassa enrollment rates appear to be highest in regions bordering Afghanistan

Considering raw enrollment numbers, around a quarter of total student madrassa attendance is accounted for by the three most-populated districts in the country. However, considering gross enrollment ratio or the fraction of total enrollment in madrassas tells a different story. It appears that the region of the country along the western border with Afghanistan possesses the highest rates of madrassa enrollment. Defining a cutoff for extreme madrasa enrollment’ as over 2%, we find that all fourteen such districts are in either Balochistan or Khyber-Pakhtunkwa (formerly the North-West Frontier Province.) This raises the suggestion that events in Afghanistan appear to influence madrassa enrollment rates in these districts - especially as we see that the largest increase in religious school education rates is for the age cohort coterminus with the rise of the Taliban in the 1990s.


There is no evidence of increasing rates of madrassa enrollment

We find no evidence of an increase in the fraction of students attending madrassas - it appears that during the 1990s, madrassa enrollment as a fraction of total enrollment decreased marginally, though the differences are well within the margin of error. Furthermore, in data we collected as part of the LEAPS household surveys, it appears that only 23.5 percent of households where a child attends a madrassa primarily can be classified as “all madrassa” households. The majority of “madrassa households” (just under 50 percent) use both madrassas and public schools, and another 28 percent use either madrassas and private schools or all three simultaneously. In settlements without a public or a private school, families are more likely to exit from the educational system altogether rather than enroll their child in a madrassa.

Overall, the evidence that we present in this paper shows that many widely-shared estimates of religious school enrollment in Pakistan are vastly overstated. In fact, madrassa enrollment rates appear to be minimal, and show no sign of rapid growth. Our most liberal estimate is still far below the estimate we have seen in many newspaper articles and policy reports. We find that most variation in madrassa enrollment is within rather than across households, and that at an aggregate level, there is little difference between poor and rich households in the choice of religious schooling.

Study Resources

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As a condition of use, please cite as: Andrabi, Tahir, Jishnu Das, Asim I. Khwaja, and Tristan Zajonc. 2006. “Religious School Enrollment in Pakistan: A Look at the Data.” Comparative Education Review, 50 (3): 446-477.